01.Jul.2020
Background: The reproduction number (R0) is vital in epidemiology to estimate the number infected people and trace the close contacts. The R0 values varies depending on social activity and type of gathering events that induce infection transmissibility, in addition to its pathophysiology dependence. Objectives: In this study, we estimated the probable outbreak size of COVID-19 at clusters mathematically using a simple model that can predict the number of COVID-19 cases, as a function of time. Methods: We proposed mathematical model to estimate the R0 of COVID-19 in the outbreak occurring in both of local and international clusters in light of published data. Different types of clusters (religious, wedding, and industrial activity) were selected based on reported events in different countries between February and April 2020. Results: The highest R0 values were found in wedding party events (5), followed by religious gathering events (2.5), while the lowest value was found in the industrial cluster (2). This in return, shall enable us to assess the trend coronavirus spread by comparing the model results and observed patterns. Conclusions: This study provides a predictive COVID-19 transmission patterns in different clusters types based on different R0 values. This model offers the decision makers in the contact-tracing task the predicted number of cases, which would help them in epidemiology investigations by knowing when to stop.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342693300_Estimation_of_the_probable_outbreak_size_of_novel_coronavirus_COVID-19_in_social_gathering_events_and_industrial_activities
Background: The reproduction number (R0) is vital in epidemiology to estimate the number infected people and trace the close contacts. The R0 values varies depending on social activity and type of gathering events that induce infection transmissibility, in addition to its pathophysiology dependence. Objectives: In this study, we estimated the probable outbreak size of COVID-19 at clusters mathematically using a simple model that can predict the number of COVID-19 cases, as a function of time. Methods: We proposed mathematical model to estimate the R0 of COVID-19 in the outbreak occurring in both of local and international clusters in light of published data. Different types of clusters (religious, wedding, and industrial activity) were selected based on reported events in different countries between February and April 2020. Results: The highest R0 values were found in wedding party events (5), followed by religious gathering events (2.5), while the lowest value was found in the industrial cluster (2). This in return, shall enable us to assess the trend coronavirus spread by comparing the model results and observed patterns. Conclusions: This study provides a predictive COVID-19 transmission patterns in different clusters types based on different R0 values. This model offers the decision makers in the contact-tracing task the predicted number of cases, which would help them in epidemiology investigations by knowing when to stop.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342693300_Estimation_of_the_probable_outbreak_size_of_novel_coronavirus_COVID-19_in_social_gathering_events_and_industrial_activities
17.Apr.2024
16.Jan.2024
20.Sep.2023
أنا طالبة في الهندسة الصناعية, اختياري لهذا التخصص كان بناءً على أهميته الكبيرة كمهنة في الحاضر والمستقبل ... رغد بركات
الهندسة الصناعية تساعدك على اتخاذ قرارات أفضل، وتعطي أشكالا أخرى من مبادئ الهندسة بشكل عملي وعلمي في آن. ... محمود صلاح
قسم الهندسة الكيميائية قسم جميل جدا تعلمت فيه الكثير ومما تعلمته فيه جدية العمل وروح الفريق الواحد .. ... رغد الشويكي